BID ECONOMICS

The economics of bidding

Calculate bid costs, expected contribution, financing and break-even. Every assumption is under your control.

Calculation results

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Revenue if won, after drawdown—

Contribution if won, after financing—

Total cost per bid—

Expected net contribution per bid—

Lifecycle contribution from one annual bid cohort—

Annual bid and analysis budget—

Expected return on bid costs—

Break-even win probability—

Wins needed to cover the annual budget—

Win-rate uplift needed to cover analysis (pp)—

Win probability sensitivity

Probability	Per bid	Annual bid cohort

Methodology, formulas and limits

R = V × d / 100

Revenue: value V × expected drawdown d. Use 100% for a fully delivered contract. A framework ceiling is not guaranteed revenue.

G = R × m / 100

Contribution: revenue R × margin m after direct delivery costs, before financing, overhead and tax. Margin is not markup.

F = K × i / 100 × D / 365

Simple financing cost on average capital K for D days at annual rate i. Set K = 0 if financing is already included in the margin.

C = h × w + O + A

Bid cost: hours h × fully loaded hourly cost w + other costs O + analysis A. Incurred even if the bid loses.

E = p / 100 × (G − F) − C

Expected net contribution: probability-weighted contribution if won, less bid costs. This is not accounting net profit.

E_year = N × E; B_year = N × C

The annual cohort assumes N comparable bids. Contribution spans the full delivery of those contracts, not necessarily one calendar year. Probability does not guarantee an actual number of wins.

ROI = E / C × 100; p* = C / (G − F) × 100

Return on bid costs and break-even probability. A zero denominator produces a dash; p* above 100% is unattainable.

W = ceil(B_year / (G − F)); Δp = A / (G − F) × 100

Wins needed to cover the annual budget and percentage-point uplift needed to cover analysis. Δp is a threshold, not a claim that analysis improves the chance of winning.

All values are CZK, excluding recoverable VAT. Include non-recoverable VAT in costs. Overhead, income tax, penalties, discounting and payment schedules are excluded. Financing uses average tied capital; do not double count it in margin. Calculations run only in your browser; inputs are not stored or sent.

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